Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
