A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
